Was The 2nd Wave Already Predicted?
1. Scientific model prediction: The government-backed SUTRA model (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach) predicted a second wave of the COVID, with daily cases of about 1 lakh and a peak in the 3rd week of April However, these predictions later turned false.
2. Chain of wrong conclusions:
By December 2020, unwrapping-economy and reducing active cases gave false hope of normalcy to the population, further cemented by contemporary political and religious events. The “Covid Hospitals” returned to their normal functions, despite the observance of the 2nd wave in Europe. The mutant forms, like the UK and Brazil variants, were reported to be more contagious. But no concrete steps were taken for their tracing, isolation and treatment. The unvaccinated 50% population (25 years old and above), devoid of a physical segregation plan, fell prey to the virus.
Ignorance : A Changing Parameter
The beginning of 2021 marked a steady decline in the rate of COVID-19 cases in India. With India’s vaccination drive on roll, the majority felt that India has finally won its war over the pandemic. There was a notable relaxation in the COVID-19 restrictions all around the country. People began travelling locally and across states without adhering to prescribed safety guidelines.
Meanwhile, the UK was already struggling with a new COVID mutant, B 1.1.7. Medical experts all around the world were surprised by the high mutation rate of the new strains. A new variant B.1.617 was first found in Vidarbha, Maharashtra, and was found to have a higher transmission rate and ability to dodge immune responses as well. One of the primary reasons for this outburst was the improper and mixed pattern of imposing covid protocols at international airports. (Including guidelines provided to various private Airlines). Most airlines eschewed from practicing regular testing and quarantine protocols of international passengers.
In states like Maharashtra and Kerala, where alarming measures were taken to control the sudden rise in new strain cases, airports were still flooded with passenger crowds. Several instances of necessary Quarantine Omission were reported on international airports including one famous incident where passengers from the Middle east and the UK landed on the Mangalore and the Bangalore airports to avoid quarantine restrictions imposed by the Maharashtra government. They then travelled all over the country by road serving as potential carriers of the new strain. These “Quarantine Omissions” somewhere on one or the other side also contributed to ignorance and hence the result was quite obvious to all the country's citizens.
Spread All-Around
The first blitz:
As the news of the India-wide lockdown spread across on March 25 2020, a significant exodus of people began from urban areas to the rural areas. As the migrants started reaching home, they became a fertile carrier of the virus, and in no time, the urban character of COVID seemed to become rural. States like Rajasthan registered a jump in recorded cases from 30% to 80% as the homecoming started. In Bihar, more than 70% of the reported cases until June 1 were linked to migrant workers. Though the G.O.I. had issued protocols for these workers' quarantine, these efforts remained ineffectivee, and India saw the extreme spread of the virus.
The second blitz:
The second wave witnessed scores of cases mainly from the rural areas. The most affected states were Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The significant reasons for the spread were the unchecked gatherings and social meetings of people during the festivals like Holi,Gajan and Charak. Pointing to how different things are this time, a senior government doctor in Malda says, "Despite the return of migrants, the viral load in the districts was negligible last time. However, the election campaigns and rallies this time have hit the districts badly." The first wave affected only the tertiary sector, but the spread of cases in rural areas during the second wave broke the link between the primary and secondary sectors.
Measures:
The government took various steps and measures to curb the uprising cases from releasing SOPs for I.L.I and S.A.R.I to instructions for observing the patients with comorbidities."Our primary objective is to contain the spread of Covid. All districts have set up 'rapid response teams', which have to be informed if anyone develops symptoms that require hospitalisation. We have authorised the use of panchayat funds to buy protective gear and arrange for food and essentials at the quarantine centres," says Mr Umakant U, principal secretary, R.D., M.P.
Pandemic And Children
Covid-19 pandemic is affecting every section of population, children are no exception to it. Let’s see some analysis!!
Img 1.1 - Total Covid Positive Cases Distribution for Lower-Age Groups**
Data Computation Sheet
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NOTE : The above data is limited to the second wave only till May, 2021 and is subjected to further change
Above graphs help us understand that Covid-19 cases have sharply risen in the second wave among children and adolescents.(Total confirmed cases in the 0-20 age group is above 3 million! )
Let’s Compare :
One of the worst affected states- Maharashtra Data is revealed by the state medical education and drugs department (MEDD) of Maharashtra.
Img 1.2[A] - Total Cases in Maharashtra **
Left1 : From February 15 to April 15,2021 || Right2 : from August 15 to October 15,2020
Data Computation Sheet
Note :C-Children,A-Adolescent,Og-Other age groups
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Direct Observation : Cases have risen in C and A groups in the second wave contributing about 2.5% and 6.5% resp.
Cases in U.S.A
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Img 1.2[B] - Total Cases in U.S.A till May,5th 2021
Data Computation Sheet
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Data released by American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association indicates a high % of covid cases among children(age group classified as children varies from state to state)
In the first wave, children who tested positive for Covid-19 were asymptomatic, and even if they had any symptoms they were not so severe and were limited to mainly Sore throat or Cough; low fever; fatigue, tiredness and headache. However, in the second wave in India children are facing more severe and new symptoms like pneumonia, stupor, drowsiness, unresponsiveness, diarrhea, vomiting, rashes, eye infection etc.
Two Major Cause Of Spread amongst Lower-Age Groups :
[1]Mutant strains of the virus (B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 ) may have greater infectivity and the capability of surpassing antibodies and the immune defence system than the previous one, which is making children more symptomatic.
[2]In between the first and second wave schools were also partially opened and people started attending social gatherings. As vaccination was not available for children(<18years) in India, there is sharp rise in cases among children
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